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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."